STRATEGIC LATITUDE INTELLIGENCE · ORIGINAL RESEARCH PRODUCT

Provincial Opportunity & Stress Engine

Where should an investor investigate next—and what happens to the regional expenditure picture if demand or capital formation weakens? Compare all 38 Indonesian provinces with reproducible, adjustable screening lenses and a clearly bounded accounting stress test.

Loading source-dated provincial and project data…
Provincial coverage—38 BPS provinces expected
Source vintage—2025 provisional GRDP data
Matched project records—Not a complete national project inventory
Screening lens—User-adjustable, relative comparison
National Gini · expenditure—BPS Susenas · socioeconomic context

Peta data provinsi · perbandingan bersumber

Peta memperlihatkan indikator BPS yang terukur, bukan skor kelayakan investasi, proyeksi, atau dampak skenario. Klik provinsi untuk memilih profil yang dibandingkan.

1 · Define the investment lens

Choose what matters to the proposed investment. The fit score is a within-dataset percentile aggregation; it does not measure financial returns, project viability or political risk.

30%
25%
20%
25%

Weights sum to 100%. A higher PMTB or consumption share is a user-selected signal, not universally better.


2 · Test a conditional stress

Specify simultaneous hypothetical reductions from the observed 2025 expenditure components. These are not sourced probability estimates.

A mechanical change in 2025 nominal GRDP components, holding everything else unchanged; not a GDP forecast, business loss estimate or policy recommendation.

Relative positioning · 38 provinces

X: 2025 real GRDP growth (YoY). Y: 2025 fixed-capital formation / GRDP. Select dots to compare provinces.

Selected provincesOther provincesDot size: relative 2025 nominal GRDP

These variables are descriptive, not permits, energy availability, investment yields or causal drivers. Smaller bubble does not imply weaker project economics.

Province fit & accounting sensitivity

Click table rows to select up to three provinces. Sort order reflects your chosen weights, not an official Indonesian investment ranking.

PositionProvinceFit / 100GRDP · IDR tnReal growthHousehold sharePMTB shareGini‡Stress · pp*Projects†

* Static nominal expenditure accounting effect expressed as a percent of baseline GRDP, not a projected real-growth change. † Records with named provincial attribution only; multi-site announcements may appear in several provinces, and cannot be summed. ‡ Gini is a socioeconomic context indicator and not part of the investment fit score.

3 · Compare selected provinces

Up to three provinces. Strengths and constraints mean relative metric positioning only.

2022–2025 historical momentum

Actual annual change in BPS constant-2010-price GRDP. Missing years remain blank.

Growth × Inequality · Socioeconomic intelligence

Compare BPS 2025 real GRDP growth with March 2026 expenditure Gini across the same provinces. Different observation periods; this is descriptive, not a causal analysis.

Official national Gini · selected area—Not an average of province Gini
Valid province observations—No missing-value interpolation
Source observation—Separate from GRDP year

The vertical benchmark is the median of available 2025 provincial real growth; the horizontal benchmark is the official BPS March 2026 national Gini for the same population area. Neither benchmark measures an investment return, project viability or causality. The regional statistics quoted below are medians/ranges of provincial observations, not official aggregate regional Gini. DKI Jakarta has no reported rural Gini.

Explore BPS inequality source dashboard ↗

SLI Analyst Brief · Decision-support synthesis

Generated from observed BPS indicators, your screening objective and the scenario assumptions. Interpretation is comparative, not a recommendation or verified project due diligence.

Evidence behind selected regions

Registry evidence is included for due-diligence navigation, not added to fit scores. An announcement, MoU, groundbreaking, and operating facility are distinct stages. Reported investment is never assumed to be realized capital.

Explore complete sourced project registry ↗

Interpretation & source boundaries

What the engine measures

A user-weighted relative combination of four observed 2025 provincial indicators. Percentile values are computed among provinces with available values, with ties handled equally. The mechanical stress equals −(household expenditure × shock + PMTB × shock) / nominal GRDP.

Distributional context

BPS Gini coefficients measure inequality of expenditure, not income, wealth or purchasing power. March 2026 Gini is used only to describe socioeconomic context alongside 2025 economic observations. It is never used to change the score or stress calculation.

What it deliberately does not measure

No investment return, solvency/default probability, land cost, permit readiness, grid headroom, clean-power availability, crime-based investment risk, political-actor ranking, or claim that project announcements are realized investment.

How to use it

Shortlist provinces, inspect observed bottlenecks and registered project milestones, then validate sector-specific infrastructure, legal requirements, company filings and energy readiness in the other SLI dashboards. Scores should not be used without examining underlying values.